Is it time to look outside of America for Income? Brazil Government Bonds are yielding over 9%.
Investors should consider International Bonds for the following reasons:
- The US Government politically seems to have less stability by the day.
- In this low rate environment, people are often seeking higher interest rates.
- It’s current wisdom that through proper diversification you can reduce risk.
- Many believe the US Dollar currency could decline in value due to government spending.
- Many other international debt issues have preformed far better than both the US Government and US Corporate debt.
Currently, we recommend that higher net worth individuals take a look at Brazil. Buy or get a quote here for International Government and Corporate bonds, including Brazil. Investors are often surprised at how easy it can be to buy/invest in foreign government and corporate securities.
Brazil, officially known as the Federate Republic of Brazil, is the largest country in South America. It is the fifth largest country by geographical area and the fifth most populous country in the world.
Brazil is the world’s eighth largest economy by nominal GDP (gross domestic product) and the ninth in the world by PPP (purchasing power parity). Economic reforms have given the country new international recognition.
Brazil has moderately free markets and an inward-oriented economy. It’s GDP surpasses $1.6 trillion, making it the eighth in the world and the second in the Americas (even ahead of Canada) in the World Bank ranking.
Judged by PPP, Brazil earns $1.9 trillion, making it the ninth largest economy in the world and the second largest in the Americas just behind the United States.
Brazil Government Debt
Brazil government bonds receive superb ratings (BAA3/BBB-).
Yield premiums for most nations’ debts are in the 9% range. For Brazil, Government debt is 6% higher than US Treasury debt for the same maturity.
The currency issues could, and will, affect future returns. Yet, with America debt exploding and the knowledge of many academic studies claiming to diversify a portion of your portfolio from US currency, risk could actually reduce for US citizens’ portfolios that have an over-abundance of their assets in US Dollars.
While working with other nations, some debt is more restrictive to US citizens than others, and Brazil has higher restrictions than some.
Brazil Government bonds maturing in 2016 are yielding around 9.%. Brazil’s Real is their underlying currency, which has been recently one of the stronger currencies worldwide.
On March 30, the indication for Brazil Government bonds ($250,000 face value, 12.50% coupon, maturing in 2016) was at 115.26 (9.03 yield) using a spot rate of 1.793. These levels are often fluid and are subject to change (and, have changed), but it allows you to see how much higher Brazil debt compares to other country debt. The Brazil currency, the Real, can and will affect the returns. We just can’t predict or insure that this currency will cause a positive or negative result.
- Must buy in US currency.
Buying in a single country does both increase your investment risk due to currency fluctuation and ownership of foreign debt, knowing that the volatility of each underling security is higher. But, if you properly build a diversified portfolio among several countries, utilizing government and corporate debt plus using the many currencies, the portfolio could actually reduce risk and add significant income. The following is our belief: United States income investors should protect a portion of their portfolio from the possibility of a devaluing dollar and current political instability. In doing this, they can often attain a much higher income and less overall portfolio risk. Even though, a large negative is that the individual sovereign security, affected by both currency and country economic condition, increases volatility. You might ask how can it be that more volatile individual securities reduce risk? This is because one would be adding the opposite of a crest and a trough to each other. Thus, in simple terms, they might just cancel out each other. Therefore, their entire portfolio might and often does have less total overall risk.
Currently, it is now our opinion that the future stability of the US Dollar is at the highest risk for increased volatility; higher than I’ve ever seen in my 25-year career. It’s due to the twin issues of overall US Government increases in spending, that makes a very large corresponding debt even larger, and then add this great increase in political instability that seems to be growing every day. These two titanic shifts will, in my opinion, greatly increase the underling volatility of the dollar and most probably in a negative way.
Brazil on the Positive Side
According to the World Economic Forum, Brazil was the top country in upward evolution in BRIC economies in 2009, gaining eight positions among other countries while overcoming Russia for the first time and partially closing the competition gap with India and China. Important steps taken toward fiscal sustainability since the 1990s, including measures taken to liberalize and open the economy, have significantly boosted the country’s competitive fundamentals allowing for more private-sector development, which is helping to expand it’s economy.
Brazil on the Negative Side
Ten Economic Freedoms of Brazil:
|54.5||Business Freedom||Avg 64.6||45.0
||Investment Freedom||Avg 49.0|
|69.2||Trade Freedom||Avg. 74.2||50.0||Financial Freedom||Avg 48.5|
|68.4||Fiscal Freedom||Avg. 75.4||50.0||Property Rights||Avg 43.8|
|50.3||Government Spending||Avg. 65.0||35.0||Fdm. from Corruption||Avg 40.5|
|75.8||Monetary Freedom||Avg. 70.6||57.5||Labor Freedom||Avg 62.1|
Brazil Statistics & Quick Facts
- 192.0 million
- $2.0 trillion
- 5.1% growth
- 4.5% 5-year compound annual growth
- $10,296 per capita
- $45.1 billion
Brazil’s economic freedom score is 55.6, making it’s economy the 113th freest in the 2010 Index. It’s score is 1.1 points lower than last year as a result of declines in investment freedom and labor freedom. Brazil is ranked 21st out of 29 countries in the South and Central America/Caribbean region, and it’s overall score is below the regional and world averages.
Brazil’s dynamic growth, long term position as a major oil producer and their monetary management appear to tip the scale in favor of their socialistic tendencies; thus, helping the country have a higher degree of growth than most Latin American countries. An over 8% yield, or over 6 times the same comparable maturity in US debt, plus protection against a possible US decline in currency (but, at risk against a rising dollar) in this market appears doubly attractive for US investors.
Brazil Bond News:
- Brazil Approves Bond Issuances for Two Wind Farm Projects - Bloomberg
- Brazil Covered Bonds Boosting Housing Key to Election: Mortgages - Bloomberg
- JPMorgan Writes Off Brazil Bond Pickup as Elections Loom - Businessweek
- Brazil Sells $1 Billion in Bonds Before Presidential Election - Bloomberg
- Brazil faces year of diminishing bond supply - Reuters
- Reasons To Get Cautious on Brazil Bonds - Barron's (blog)
- Brazil: MS Case for FX & Local Bonds - Barron's (blog)
- Brazil sets stage for covered bond market - International Financing Review
- Brazil's Election: Peril or Profit for EM Bond ETFs - ETF Trends
- 22 Brazil cut its economic growth forecast to... - Mynextfone
Brazil Economy News:
- Brazil's economic recovery depends on US, president says - Fox News Latino
- Brazil's economy falls into recession, latest figures show - BBC News
- Brazil's economy grows at fastest monthly clip in 6 years - Fox News Latino
- Brazil's Economic Growth Forecast Reduced Again - Wall Street Journal
- In Brazil, Tide Of Economic Weakness Lifts All Boats - Forbes
- Moody's threatens to downgrade Brazil as economy stalls - Reuters
- Analysts Cut Brazil Economic Growth Estimate to 0.33% - Latin American Herald Tribune
- Brazil election: Economy at heart of battle - BBC News
- Brazil Industrial Data Dim Prospects for Strong Economic Rebound - Wall Street Journal
- Could Brazil Have The First 'Green' President Of A Major Economy? - NPR (blog)
Brazil Real News:
- Brazil's Real Leads Major-Currency Declines Before Poll Results - Bloomberg
- Brazil's Real Drops to Seven-Month Low as Silva's Support Falls - Bloomberg
- Brazil's Real Drops to Five-Month Low as Rousseff Gains Support - Bloomberg
- Brazil's Real Extends Weekly Drop to Biggest Since August 2013 - Businessweek
- Brazil's Real Falls to Seven-Month Low on Concern Over Fed Rate - Businessweek
- Brazil's Real Tumbles on Concern Rousseff Is Picking Up Support - Bloomberg
- Brazilian Real Falls for Sixth Day as Investors Weigh Poll Data - Businessweek
- EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil real at near 6-month lows, intervention eyed - Reuters
- Brazil's Real Posts Weekly Drop on Bets Rousseff Gains Support - Bloomberg
- Brazil's Real Leads Latin America Gains as Rousseff Outlook Dims - Businessweek